{"id":2926,"date":"2019-12-16T13:52:39","date_gmt":"2019-12-16T10:52:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abptds.com\/dunya-celik-sektorunun-genel-gorunumu\/"},"modified":"2024-10-31T16:22:04","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T13:22:04","slug":"dunya-celik-sektorunun-genel-gorunumu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abptds.com\/en\/dunya-celik-sektorunun-genel-gorunumu\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnya \u00c7elik Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn Genel G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

D\u00fcnya \u00c7elik Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn Genel G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

ABD, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, G\u00fcney ve Do\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerindeki y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen geli\u015fmekte olan bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkedeki daralmadan dolay\u0131 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin %3,1 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi beklenmektedir. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131na k\u0131yasla geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki ekonomik canlanma daha h\u0131zl\u0131 olurken \u00f6zellikle baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin ve petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck performanslar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle y\u00fckselen ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin ekonomilerinde daralma ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle y\u00fckselen ekonomilere sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki azalma ve para birimlerindeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ile finansal piyasalardaki volatilite 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda riskleri art\u0131ran fakt\u00f6rler olmu\u015ftur. Bu makroekonomik geli\u015fmelerle birlikte kapasite fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131, arz ve talep taraf\u0131ndaki konsolidasyon, korumac\u0131 ticaret politikalar\u0131, emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve kar marjlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re \u00e7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde daha yo\u011fun bir \u015fekilde ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerdeki siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klar sekt\u00f6r\u00fc olumsuz etkilemi\u015ftir. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu fakt\u00f6rler birbirlerini tetikleyerek sekt\u00f6r\u00fc istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel sorunlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen kapasite fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak \u00c7in’den kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. At\u0131l kapasitenin s\u00fcrekli olarak artmas\u0131, firmalar\u0131n verimlili\u011finin d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Bunun sonucunda fiyatlar ve karl\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015fmekte, firmalar zarar\u0131na bile olsa ihracat yaparak stoklar\u0131n\u0131 eritmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6ylelikle hem ham madde fiyatlar\u0131nda hem mamul fiyatlar\u0131nda ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. Kapasite fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sosyoekonomik yans\u0131malar\u0131 da olmakta, iflas oranlar\u0131 artmakta ve istihdam daralmaktad\u0131r. Buna ek olarak, bir b\u00f6lgedeki kapasite fazlas\u0131 \u00fcretimin b\u00f6lgesel olarak kaymas\u0131na sebebiyet vermekte ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla o b\u00f6lgedeki \u00fcreticiler zarar g\u00f6rmektedir. Bu durum devletlerin korumac\u0131 e\u011filimlerini art\u0131rmakta ve serbest ticareti sekteye u\u011fratmaktad\u0131r. Son olarak kapasite fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131, gereksiz enerji sarfiyat\u0131na yol a\u00e7makta ve olumsuz \u00e7evresel sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Artan ticaret politikas\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sorun haline gelmektedir. Ba\u015fta geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde olmak \u00fczere, yerli sanayiciler, kar marjlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla yerli end\u00fcstrinin zarar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sav\u0131yla \u00fclkeleri nezdinde \u00e7e\u015fitli ticaret politikas\u0131 enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131na ba\u015fvurmaktad\u0131rlar. Bu soru\u015fturma talepleri, DT\u00d6 kurallar\u0131na uygun olarak dampingli mal giri\u015fini ve haks\u0131z kazanc\u0131 \u00f6nlemeye y\u00f6nelik oldu\u011funda sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 geli\u015fimine katk\u0131 sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Fakat bu davalar, haks\u0131z gerek\u00e7elere dayal\u0131 oldu\u011funda \u00f6nemli riskler do\u011furmaktad\u0131r. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk unsurlar\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasa fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, rekabet\u00e7ilik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bozulmas\u0131, uygulanan haks\u0131z damping marjlar\u0131 yoluyla \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131na piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan m\u00fcdahale edilmesinden dolay\u0131 t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6r payda\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki orta ve uzun vadeli dengenin bozulmas\u0131 ve nihayetinde k\u00fcresel anlamda sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesidir.<\/p>\n

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\u00c7in’in i\u00e7 piyasa taleplerindeki daralma, fiyatlar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca bu durumun \u00c7in’i agresif ihracata y\u00f6nlendirmesi de fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinde \u00f6nemli etkenlerden biri olmu\u015ftur. \u00d6te yandan rubledeki de\u011fer kayb\u0131, Rusya’n\u0131n ihracattaki rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinde \u00f6nemli rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Di\u011fer taraftan, Brezilya ve Avustralya’n\u0131n cevher \u00fcretimlerini art\u0131rmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 arz da fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca cevher fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hurdadan daha sert oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in cevherden \u00fcretimin daha fazla oldu\u011fu \u00fclkeler rekabet avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Son olarak ham maddelerini tedarik\u00e7ilerden sa\u011flayanlar, dikey entegre olmu\u015f firmalara yani ihtiya\u00e7 duyduklar\u0131 ham maddeleri kendileri \u00fcreten veya ortakl\u0131k yoluyla temin edenlere nazaran daha y\u00fcksek kar marjlar\u0131 elde etmi\u015flerdir.<\/p>\n

2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in, %6,9 ile son 25 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. \u00c7in bug\u00fcne kadar \u00f6zellikle istihdam\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7ok da rasyonel say\u0131lamayacak baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlara te\u015fvikler sunmaktayd\u0131. Fakat devlet te\u015fvikleri, sa\u011flanan ucuz krediler bile firmalar\u0131n bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc hafifletmemi\u015ftir. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda in\u015faat faaliyetlerindeki duraksaman\u0131n da etkisiyle \u00c7in’in, \u00e7elik \u00fcretimini %0,5 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi ve \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu kalifiye olmayan 400 bin \u00e7elik i\u015f\u00e7isinin i\u015fini kaybedece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de \u00e7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne olumsuz yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f ve petrol sekt\u00f6r\u00fcyle ilgili yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, ilgili \u00e7elik \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin talebinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru bir etki yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda in\u015faat ve otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki canlanmadan dolay\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen ABD \u00e7elik t\u00fcketiminde c\u00fczi de olsa art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 artan konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki canlanma ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn enerji maliyetlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinden dolay\u0131 ba\u015fta Almanya ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k olmak \u00fczere Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00e7elik t\u00fcketiminde ufak bir art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya ham \u00e7elik \u00fcretimi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re %2,9 oran\u0131nda azalarak 1,6 milyar ton olmu\u015ftur. En \u00e7ok \u00e7elik \u00fcreten 15 \u00fclkeden sadece Hindistan’\u0131n \u00fcretiminde art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 804 milyon tonla, d\u00fcnya \u00fcretiminin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren \u00c7in’in \u00fcretimi %2,3 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ferken 105 milyon tonla ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretici olan Japonya’n\u0131n \u00fcretimi %5 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri d\u00fcnya \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminde d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada yer alan Hindistan, \u00fcretimini %2,6 oran\u0131nda art\u0131rarak 90 milyon tona \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f ve ABD’nin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7erek \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011fe y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. ABD ise %10,6’l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ile Ukrayna’dan sonra en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretim kayb\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ve 79 milyon tonla s\u0131ralamada d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011fe gerilemi\u015ftir. S\u0131ralamada 5. ve 6. olan Rusya ve G. Kore’nin \u00fcretimi ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla %0,8 ve %1,9 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ferek 70,9 ve 69,7 milyon ton olmu\u015ftur. En b\u00fcy\u00fck 15 \u00e7elik \u00fcreticisi aras\u0131nda 2015’te \u00fcretimi en \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fclke politik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan dolay\u0131 Ukrayna olmu\u015ftur. Ukrayna’n\u0131n \u00e7elik \u00fcretimi 4,2 milyon ton civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ferek 23 milyon ton olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u00e7elik \u00fcretimi ise 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda %7,4 oran\u0131nda azalm\u0131\u015f ve 31,5 milyon ton olarak kaydedilmi\u015ftir. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda ham \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminde 8. s\u0131rada yer alan T\u00fcrkiye, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 9.lu\u011fa gerilemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

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Miktar baz\u0131nda 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fcnya \u00e7elik ihracat\u0131 verileri incelendi\u011finde, en b\u00fcy\u00fck 10 \u00e7elik ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131nda %33’l\u00fck art\u0131\u015fla en \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u00fclkenin Brezilya oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. B\u00f6ylelikle 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda 13. s\u0131rada olan Brezilya, 2015’te 16,6 milyon tonla 9.lu\u011fa kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 3. cevher \u00fcreticisi olan Brezilya’n\u0131n cevher fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kaynakl\u0131 olarak elde etti\u011fi rekabet avantaj\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130hracat\u0131n\u0131 tonaj hacmi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan en \u00e7ok art\u0131ran \u00fclke ise 18,7 milyon tonla \u00c7in olmu\u015ftur.\u00a0\u00a0B\u00f6ylelikle \u00c7in, 2015’te 126 milyon tonluk ihracata ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in’in b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e i\u00e7 piyasa \u00e7elik t\u00fcketimi daralm\u0131\u015f ve bu durum da ihracat\u0131 tetiklemi\u015ftir. Bu e\u011filimin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda da s\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu \u00fclkeler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekici art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren \u00fclkeler s\u0131ras\u0131yla %6,2 ve %5,9’luk art\u0131\u015fla Rusya ve Bel\u00e7ika olmu\u015ftur. \u0130hracat\u0131 en \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fclke ise ham \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminde oldu\u011fu gibi Ukrayna’d\u0131r. Ukrayna’dan sonra ihracatta en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fayan \u00fclkelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda %7,9’luk azal\u0131\u015fla T\u00fcrkiye gelmektedir.<\/p>\n

2015 y\u0131l\u0131, \u00f6zellikle talep daralmas\u0131 ve fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinden dolay\u0131 \u00e7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlu ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. D\u00fcnya \u00c7elik Birli\u011fi verilerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya nihai \u00e7elik t\u00fcketimi 2015’te %1,7 oran\u0131nda azalarak 1,51 milyar ton olmu\u015ftur. \u00c7elik t\u00fcketiminin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda %0,8 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131ktan sonra 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda %0,5 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. K\u0131sacas\u0131 uzman kurulu\u015flar\u0131n beklentilerine g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyada \u00e7eli\u011fe olan talep k\u0131sa vadede az bir oranda da olsa d\u00fc\u015fecek, fakat sonras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131yla artacakt\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden talepte k\u0131smi de olsa daralma ya\u015fan\u0131rken ve d\u00fcnyada ortalama kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 %65 seviyelerine gerilemi\u015fken, \u00e7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde fazla kapasitenin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 bir zorunluluk haline gelmi\u015ftir. Son g\u00fcnlerde cevher fiyatlar\u0131nda ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. S\u00f6z konusu emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l boyunca s\u00fcrekli artmas\u0131 beklenmese bile fiyatlar\u0131n en az\u0131ndan sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu beklenti ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse \u00f6zellikle petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak cevherden \u00fcretim yapan \u00fclkelerin maliyetlerinde art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanacakt\u0131r, fakat bu durum k\u00fcresel anlamda sekt\u00f6re bir ivme kazand\u0131racakt\u0131r. Son olarak, t\u00fcm risklere ve yap\u0131sal sorunlara ra\u011fmen 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7elik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu bir y\u0131l olmas\u0131n\u0131 umuyoruz.<\/p>\n

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\u00a0D\u00dcNYA\u00a0HAM \u00c7EL\u0130K \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130<\/p>\n

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\u00a0D\u00dcNYA\u00a0\u00c7EL\u0130K T\u00dcKET\u0130M\u0130<\/p>\n

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\u00a0D\u00dcNYA\u00a0\u00c7EL\u0130K \u0130HRACATI<\/p>\n

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\u00a0D\u00dcNYA\u00a0\u00c7EL\u0130K \u0130THALATI<\/p>\n

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Kaynak :<\/strong>\u00a0http:\/\/www.cib.org.tr\/tr\/istatistikler-dunya-celik-sektorunun-genel-gorunumu.html<\/a><\/em><\/div>\n
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